The notion that renewed closeness between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Nasa leader Raila Odinga is a plot by the Kenyattas to pay a political debt to the Odingas or prepare the country for an Odinga presidency wrong.
Their association is informed by the recognition that their continuous rivalry has caused great trouble and put their personal and family interests at stake. Therefore, if they don’t deal with the issues that divide them, even their wealth will go up in smoke. They are brought together by a common objective to reduce rivalry and secure the social, political and economic achievements they have made for their families and friends since independence, and for the future.
It’s more reasonable for them to work together, as constant fights put their wealth at risk. They either stay together, or burn separately. This was seen in the 2012 and 2017 elections.
This rivalry has never been healthy for investments and has hurt the massive massive wealth of both families.
It might not be true with this handshake Raila wants to be President with Kenyatta’s support. My thinking is the two gentlemen want to determine who becomes the President. They want to tower above everybody else and say this handshake, contrary to what people were saying, was not done for themselves.
This association is what is imploding Jubilee today. In the 2013 Jubilee arrangement, it was certain that after Uhuru, it would be Ruto. So Raila has changed the equation. It has demolished the notion that it’s a Kikuyu or Kalenjin for President, and a Luo opposing. If you give Ruto the presidency, the Kalenjin-Kikuyu arrangement stands, with a Luo opposing. But Raila and Uhuru are trying to create a new narrative, unsettling other people in Jubilee.
This could spell doom for Jubilee because it was founded on a Kikuyu-Kalenjin duopoly, with a Luo in opposition. If that scheme dies, it leaves others orphaned, and it becomes possible to break Jubilee. A new outfit embracing new political thinking could emerge.
It seems the new thinking is not only embraced by Odinga and Uhuru but also past presidents who don’t seem keen to meet Jubilee adherents.