A cut-throat confrontation looms as Kenyans usher in the New Year fraught with succession battles, agitation for a referendum and the push for internal Jubilee Party polls.
The country will be engulfed in heightened political temperatures as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is set to review boundaries, while the National Census will also be held in 2019. Both will have a bearing on constituencies and votes.
Analysts and politicians say these issues are likely to overshadow President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four agenda – the projects he wants to roll out to secure his legacy before he steps down in 2022. They are universal healthcare, affordable housing, revival of manufacturing and food security.
Yesterday National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale sought to play down fears the Jubilee succession game plan and the polls would impede the Big Four.
The Garissa Township MP told a local daily the Jubilee leadership would do whatever it takes next year to deliver on its massive pledges to Kenyans and buttress national unity.
“As Jubilee leaders led by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, we have a social contract with the People of Kenya and will use all the energy, time and resources in fulfilling our manifesto and the Big Four agenda to better lives,” the local daily quoted Duale.
President Uhuru wants to ride on what may turn out to be short-lived political tranquility inspired by a truce with his foe-turned-friend Raila Odinga and the Building Bridges Initiative. He hopes this will neutralise the succession race and reinforce his legacy.
The handshake team has been crisscrossing the country, collecting views on how Kenyans want a couple of key issues roiling the country tackled. The panel’s proposals are likely to trigger a constitutional change.
Political analyst Martin Andati yesterday said a referendum is inevitable and will most likely crystallise this year, with far-reaching ramifications for 2022 political formations.
Ahead of the anticipated referendum, tension remains palpable among political figures holding divergent views on the clamour for constitutional change.
Proposed changes include expansion and restructuring of the Executive structure, a parliamentary-type system and a dramatic reduction in the number of MPs and MCAs to reduce the debilitating wage bill and a strengthening of devolution.
Ruto is seen as the face of the anti-referendum push but his allies are strategising how to turn tables against Uhuru and Raila in case of a plebiscite.
Raila wants a parliamentary system entrenched as opposed to the current winner-take-all presidential system accused of perpetuating ethnic exclusion and animosity.
The referendum push and presidential ambitions are likely to widen the Raila-Ruto wedge in the New Year. The former Prime Minister is expected to declare whether or not he will run for President.
“Raila is and will be the most potent player in 2019 and going forward to 2022. He will dwarf all the political pretenders currently masquerading as potential presidential candidates. He will definitely deliver the elusive Kenyan dream come 2022,” Nasa secretariat CEO Norman Magaya was also quoted.