If Manchester City fail to defend their Premier League title, you can trace the root of the problem back to the scorching hot days of early July.
Pep Guardiola was chivvying the club’s transfer team to get the signing of Napoli‘s midfield kingpin over the line, as the Blues had been ahead of the pursuing pack for some time.
But in the end, a counter-offer from Chelsea caused a volte-face by the Italy international.
Jorginho plumped for life in the metropolis instead, and City were bereft.
From a position where they had a number two and three option – Real Madrid’s Mateo Kovacic and Southampton’s Mario Lemina – they suddenly had no Plan B.
R E A D Y pic.twitter.com/Lqgn4AjOeX
— Manchester City (@ManCity) December 22, 2018
It seemed not to matter as the Blues picked up where they had left off last season, winning in imperious fashion, with Fernandinho looking better than ever.
Then the chill draughts of winter began to blow through the Etihad Stadium corridors, and Crystal Palace rocked up, supposedly as more cannon fodder for the Blues.
For the first time this season City went into a game without Fernandinho, Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva – and it showed.
City won all three without breaking sweat and Gundogan was his usual efficient, professional self.
Why Guardiola decided he could not play there this time, and either start De Bruyne, or even Phil Foden, is baffling.
On such moments titles can be decided, an now City face a situation that they did not have to deal with last season – chasing down a team that has a four-point gap in the bag and is flowing with self-belief.
You can never underestimate the character of this team, and you feel that Liverpool will also suffer with injury, ill luck and form dips before the season is out.
But City may yet regret that they have failed to find a suitable stand-in and long-term replacement for their Brazilian ace.