The referendum has become the major talk in town. Everybody has his/her views about whether it’s happening or not, why it should happen and if its a plot by NASA leader Raila Odinga to nail down the deputy president H.E William Ruto during the race to succeed president Uhuru’s throne in the next general elections.
Recently the deputy president was quoted telling Raila and I quote ‘’Hamuwezi kunifukuza ODM tena mnifuate mnifukuze jubilee, hiyo haiwezekani’’. What does this mean? Have a look at this;
The hot-man at IEBC has been fired. The commission’s chair Wafula Chebukati said they reached a decision to send the CEO packing after he failed to respect summons to appear before them to answer allegations against him that he had messed with the tendering of the materials used during the just concluded elections among others.
After the elections it was no longer a secret that Ruto had colluded with Chiloba to bungle the elections.
This was evident in Chebukati’s memo to the then IEBC CEO (that leaked) exposing the flaws that were experienced during the elections under Chiloba’s leadership.
Ruto’s fortified wall at IEBC has been demolished. He is now exposed to all political dangers since at the moment he is not privy to information and behind-the-curtain deals at the commission. This comes after his deal to destabilize IEBC and force the whole commission out backfired as well.
Public opinion got it that Ruto told his other allies who were commissioners (Consolata Maina, Paul Kurgat and Margaret Mwachanya) to resign so as to force the whole commission out and leave Chiloba as the boss.
This was realized when Chebukati wrote to SRC to enquire why the three were still earning salaries even after they had resigned, causing an uproar on social media and debates on leading local TV stations.
Raila through the handshake has called for a referendum, something that has been publicly understood as a plot to outdo Ruto in his plan to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta and scuttle the Jubilee party ahead of the 2022 showdown.
One of Raila’s advisors Norman Magaya was once quoted through a tweet saying that henceforth political parties should nominate commissioners to IEBC to avoid bungling of elections. He further added that the bigger the party the more and senior positions it received at the commission.
This means that if Raila succeeds in his plot of scuttling the Jubilee party, ODM will remain the largest party and could receive the Position of the commission’s chair and the majority of its commissioners as well. But how will this happen?
In Raila’s proposed draft, he wants a constitution that provides for the position of a powerful prime minister and two deputies. The prime minister is appointed by the president. In a well orchestrated scheme, the three royal families (Moi, Odinga, and Kenyatta) have come up with a game plan that will see Raila rise to presidency, who will then appoint Uhuru Kenyatta as the prime minister and Gideon Moi as the first deputy prime minister.
The second position of the deputy prime minister will be awarded to either Joho or Musalia Mudavadi.
Well, if this happens it means Uhuru will have to support Raila in his 2022 presidential bid and by so doing he will have failed to honor the Jubilee party MOU that he will support Ruto after his second term in office.
This will automatically translate into a split within the Jubilee party weakening it thus leaving ODM as Kenya’s biggest party and the Norman Magaya scheme will have gone through.
Ruto having realized that the referendum calls were meant to measure his political strength in the country decided to be cunning. He first came out and strongly opposed it, then later said he would support then suddenly changed his mind saying he would neither support nor oppose it because he was busy serving Kenyans as per his mandate. Well, that was a good score against Raila but then did he see this coming?
Raila has now changed tactics and wants the referendum held towards the end of Uhuru’s term in office, this he said will allow the president to first deliver his big four agenda.
In Ruto’s answer to this opinion, he categorically said that if the referendum has to be held, it must be early enough to allow him enough time to prepare for 2022.
But had Ruto not said he was not interested in the referendum? Why again is he bothered by the timeline of the referendum?
If the referendum was to be held this early, Ruto will have time to take statistics on the regional voting pattern thus see where to reinforce, he will also get know his royals and rebels within the Jubilee party.
In short Ruto will have enough time to strategize based on the outcome of the referendum’s voting lines. Raila is plotting to have it held a few months to the 2022 general elections to press Ruto hard against the wall as much as time factor is a consideration.
Ruto will have to play his cards right now that one of the people he was anticipated to take as his running mate, Musalia Mudavadi; so as to scoop the Western Kenya voting bloc has been invited to the royal families scheme (the referendum).
In reply, Ruto’s allies have vowed to prepare a draft that limits the age limit of a presidential candidate to be not more than 70 years of age. They said they will use their numbers in parliament and the senate to push it through.
If this happens then Raila will be automatically locked out of the 2022 showdown leaving Ruto as the most preferred candidate.
Who will win in this game of thrones? Will it be back to the royal families or the hustler?
Lets watch the turn of events.