Liverpool were the unluckiest team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were among the luckiest, new research has revealed.
According to the ESPN Luck Index, a research project designed and carried out by ESPN, Intel and experts at the University of Bath, Liverpool were denied 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards.
Conversely, Manchester United gained six points from decisions that went in their favour.
Using a predictive model which crunched hundreds of data points and working in collaboration with former Premier League referee Peter Walton, a research team analysed footage from every game of the season to see which major incidents should have been overturned.
Liverpool would have finished second (still 10 points adrift of Manchester City) according to the Luck Index and Manchester United would have finished fourth.
The study also revealed Huddersfield and not Stoke would have been relegated. Huddersfield would have remained on 37 points while Stoke lost out on four which would have seen them stay up.
Brighton would have won an additional £11.5m in prize money in their first season in the Premier League by finishing six places higher, while Leicester would have won £9.6m less.
“The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage,” said University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran.
“Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out – it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted.”
Former referee Walton added: “The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.
“With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds.”
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp says his players are at different fitness levels ahead of the new season and still have plenty of work to do.
The Reds play their final pre-season game against Torino at Anfield on Tuesday with Dejan Lovren’s return this week meaning Klopp has his full squad together for the first time this summer.
There are just five days to go until Liverpool’s Premier League opener against West Ham live and Klopp is concerned that his side are not quite ready.
He told the club’s website: “We need to get back the freshness, for one thing, and the other thing we still need to work on is endurance. The boys are not all on the same level, you can see that.
Liverpool, who are widely tipped to challenge for the title having spent £160m in the transfer window, have an eight-day gap before their second game at Crystal Palace on August 20, also live on Sky Sports, and Klopp feels that may be another problem.
“We need to play the first game somehow,” he added. “Then we have another eight days because we play on Sunday and Monday. That is another pre-season week, I cannot change that. That’s the challenge we have now.