When the World Cup began, most believed that the semi-finals would be composed of the following four teams: Spain, Germany, France and Brazil. Other potential teams in the top 4 included Belgium, Uruguay, Portugal, Colombia and Argentina. While France and Belgium did fulfil that potential, two teams that were not expected to be in the semi-finals are Croatia and England. Both had been perennial disappointments over the past decade.
England’s Golden Generation didn’t come to fruition as the likes of Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Wayne Rooney failed to take the Three Lions past the quarter-finals. Croatia didn’t have similar expectations, but their failure to get out of the group stages since 1998- disappointing for a team which has had Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic over the past decade.
Now one of these perennially disappointing teams will be in the final of the FIFA World Cup. Gareth Southgate has led a young English side that has dumped the baggage of the past. On the other hand, Zlatko Dalic has helped Croatia to match the achievements of their best team in 1998. So what are some key battles that will decide this semi-final?
In reality, I may have left out the most important key battle- the one at the penalty spot. Of the four combined knockout games played by these teams, three have ended in penalty shootouts. It is very likely that a cagey semi-final may end in a penalty shootout.
1 Harry Kane vs Domagoj Vida
Harry Kane’s goal-scoring has been a little overrated at this World Cup- the Tottenham striker has scored three penalties, two tap-ins and one inadvertent deflection. However, the England captain has managed to have an impact even when he hasn’t been scoring. His hold-up play was particularly excellent against Colombia.
Croatia will need to stop Kane if they are to have any hope of winning the game. Thankfully for the Croats, they have the exact person for the job: Domagoj Vida who is likely to be available despite political controversies.
While Dejan Lovren has gotten most of the footballing attention from the Croatian defence, Vida has been more consistent for a Croatian defence that has only conceded four goals in five games. Croatia will need Vida to defeat Kane in the air (especially on set-pieces)- the Tottenham striker has won 4.8 aerial duels per game so far in the tournament.
2 Luka Modric vs Jordan Henderson
Arguably the tournament’s best central midfielder, Luka Modric has carried on his Real Madrid form for Croatia. The Vatreni captain has combined with Ivan Rakitic to form the most devastating central midfield in the World Cup. While Croatia rely unnecessarily on inefficient crossing, anytime Modric has the ball will be problematic for the English. Modric’s through balls will be particularly troubling for the Three Lions considering Harry Maguire, John Stones and Kyle Walker have averaged a combined 2.0 interceptions per game (same or less than 44 individual players).
This combined with Stones’ and Walker’s error-prone play, may result in easy chances for Mario Mandzukic and Ante Rebic. However, England can prevent Modric from having the space to dictate the game. This was done successfully by Russia in the quarter-finals as the hosts used several defensive midfielders to reduce the effectiveness of Modric and Rakitic.
3 Kieran Trippier vs Ivan Strinic
In terms of overall offensive and defensive impact, Kieran Tripper has arguably been England’s best player. He has been England’s chief creator, best dribbler, best tackler and best crosser. His pinpoint deliveries (along with Ashely Young) are partially responsible for England’s brilliant set-pieces. Yet, what makes Trippier particularly worrying for Croatia is the fact that they do not have an answer to him. Ivan Strinic continues to be Croatia’s weakest player, as opposing defences have chosen to target the recent AC Milan signing. It is no coincidence that Strinic almost never survives the full 90 minutes for Zlatko Dalic’s side. This was especially evident in the quarter-final when Russia chose to attack constantly through right-back Mario Fernandes.