That the Word Cup semi-final line-up does not feature any of the past winners from this millennium, including top-ranked Germany and Brazil, shows a shift in what works. It will set off a rethink on strategy.
Brazil dominated possession and had more shots on goal in its quarter-final with Belgium. But the classiest play came from Belgian forward Romelu Lukaku, who tore away in counter-attack after a Brazilian corner. He kept control despite being surrounded by half a dozen yellow-and-green jerseys, looked up momentarily, and found Kevin De Bruyne with space on the right.
De Bruyne’s long-range shot placed inside the far post gave the goalkeeper no chance. Brazil’s attempts to score, in contrast, were either hurried or without a clear sight of goal in a crowded penalty box.
After Spain won the World Cup in 2010 with tiki-taka, other teams started to pay attention to ball possession. Germany had the ball 64% of the time when it beat Argentina in the 2014 World Cup final. Possession had a defensive component, in limiting opportunities to score for the opposition, as well as an attacking element in slicing through defences with triangular formations and thrusts forward with deft passes.
Two things have noticeably changed in this World Cup. Defences have become adept at disrupting short-passing routines. Russia showed against Spain that 11 large bodies in the penalty box leave precious few gaps to exploit. Belgium’s unlikely heroes, the tall Marouane Fellaini and the muscular Nacer Chadli, clamped down in midfield on Neymar and Philippe Coutinho, the main threat from Brazil.
The second difference from the previous two World Cups was in the quality of possession football. The German team appeared to be a victim of its own success in 2014, with not enough fresh blood. Spain was past its prime, and the new lot did not combine well with the old maestro Andres Iniesta. Brazil was over-dependent on its left wing as Willian on the right was missing in action against strong sides. His replacement Renato Augusto arrived too late.