Both Gareth Southgate’s side and the Belgians have secured a place in the last 16, with only the winner of the group to be decided in Kaliningrad.
But is there an easier route through the knockout stages on offer to the team who finish second?
Belgium boss Roberto Martinez has already hinted at wholesale changes with Romelu Lukaku ruled out – while Southgate has pointed out that with no knockout game wins since 2006, it is silly for England to look too far ahead.
What if England win?
- With victory, England would join Uruguay and Croatia as the only teams to win all three of their group games and, in doing so, set up a last-16 tie against Group H runners-up Japan.
- This half of the draw would see England line up against four of the top seven sides in the world according to the latest Fifa rankings – and the Three Lions have lost to Brazil, Portugal, France and Argentina – plus Uruguay – at major tournaments in the past 20 years. That said, England did beat Argentina in 2002.
- According to sports data company Gracenote, Southgate’s side have a 24% chance of reaching the last four should they win the group, and a 12% chance of being in the final on 15 July.
What if England lose?
- Southgate said it was “dangerous territory” to try to plot a favourable path, but let’s delve into it anyway.
- Finishing second in the group with defeat by Belgium – or a draw and a host of yellow cards (more on that below) – may not be so dire an outcome for England.
- Going via this route, England would meet Colombia in the last 16 and then could come up against Spain – but they have got past Spain at a major tournament more recently than they have lost to them, and they have no recent tournament defeats by any of the other sides lying in wait, and wins over Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark.
- Given this scenario, Gracenote suggests England’s chances of reaching the semi-finals would increase to 35% and their hopes of being in the final would go up to 18%.
What if England draw on Thursday?
- A draw would leave both sides with the same number of goals scored and goals conceded and obviously no way of deciding who tops the group on their head-to-head record.
- The top two positions will then be decided by the number of cards accumulated. England have two yellows and Belgium have picked up three so far.
- Could we see a foul in the final few minutes determining the group winner?
- If both teams finish with the same number of bookings, then lots will be drawn to decide the final positions.