If you’re looking for a favourite when the FIFA World Cup 2018 opens next week in Russia, it’s Brazil. Spain will be the losing finalist.
Those are some of the findings from an analysis of the 32-team World Cup field run by Gracenote, a U.S-based sports and entertainment provider that’s done simulations of possible outcomes.
Of course, Gracenote is one of many World Cup predictions out there. It gets some extra credence because it’s using the Elo system, which was originally devised to rank skill levels of chess players. It’s now used to rank the relative strength of American baseball football teams.
Simon Gleave, who ran the World Cup analysis for Gracenote, says Brazil has just over a 21 percent chance of winning its sixth World Cup. Spain, Germany, and Argentina are ranked next in that order. Spain has a 10 percent chance, and Germany and Argentina are listed at 8 percent.