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B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 14

    By this point next week, the college football seasons for many will be complete.

    This reality has hit particularly hard this week, at a time when the College Football Playoff is taking shape and conference championship weekend is closing in. Those are wonderful occasions for a sport that does big things very well.

    But big things aren't always needed, especially when it comes to wagering. We love college football for games big and small, which is why this time of year is always a bit bittersweet.

    Last week, our picks were more bitter than sweet. A massive hot streak cooled off with a 4-5 showing. It was a mix of some unfortunate luck and some bad selections. For the season, we're now 61-57.

    After a very slow start, things have picked up. But last week's performance cannot be the norm.

    Before we get to this week's picks, here's what went right and wrong with the week that was.

    The Good: Auburn (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M: This was a good pick that also enjoyed some good fortune. While Auburn attempted to lose this game, the Tigers ultimately prevailed in CFB's weird—and frankly bad—extended OT format. We'll take it.

    The Bad: Mississippi State (+8) vs. Missouri: We got too cute here, simple as that. While I thought Mississippi State would keep this tight, that was not the case. We outsmarted ourselves here, and we'll be better for it in the future.

    With that complete, let's get to picks. Enjoy CFB's last full week, everyone.

    For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.

    One of the sport's most consistent entities finds itself in a rather robust funk.

    Wisconsin football is a shell of what it used to be, and that isn't likely to change no matter how many offensive coordinators this team decides to hire. After losing by 19 to Nebraska on Saturday, the Badgers have now lost four straight games, albeit against a rather difficult schedule.

    This might seem like an odd way to promote a team we're backing this week, but that's precisely what we're doing.

    Minnesota, fresh off a strong—and somewhat heartbreaking—loss to Penn State must hit the road one last time. The Gophers were solid against the Nittany Lions, although this feels like a potential letdown spot with one game remaining and little to play for.

    Wisconsin, meanwhile, is playing for a bowl game.

    The weather will be cold, and the play likely won't be all that crisp. Regardless, the Badgers get an ugly win.

    On the topic of bowl eligibility, enter Cincinnati.

    The Bearcats have been sitting on five wins for more than a month now, although they've lost four consecutive games. Granted, three of those losses were on the road against Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State.

    Coming home will help a lot. As will temperatures that should be hovering around 30 degrees around game time. A Texas football team probably won't love that. (As a reminder, keep an eye on forecasts this weekend as a whole.)

    That Texas team, TCU, has done an excellent job turning its season around. The Horned Frogs have won four of the last five games, although the schedule has been favorable. Favorable or not, this team has really rallied.

    The weather and the timing and the stakes, however, could change this current trajectory for both squads. At home, on a frigid night, Cincinnati will finally get right.

    The fact that this rivalry has returned is a blessing. The fact that the winner will head to the SEC Championship Game is, well, simply superb.

    Indeed, this one matters.

    Presently, neither team is exactly thriving. Texas A&M is coming off a difficult loss at Auburn, which included a valiant comeback after falling behind early. Texas, meanwhile, hasn't exactly looked like a dominant team in stretches.

    Something will give this week, and home field, especially in a game expected to deliver one of the best atmospheres in recent memory, matters. It's also the day quarterback Marcel Reed will become a star.

    Reed, who became the starter a few weeks ago, has the skills to become one of the nation's most exciting players. At home, he should do enough to test a Texas defense that has been good enough.

    In terms of picking a winner, this is a tough one. A&M is certainly a live underdog, and this has the makings of a field-goal game.

    As such, give us the points.

    And enjoy.

    When was the last time Notre Dame played a true road game, you ask? Well, that would be September 14.

    Since then, the Irish have played in NFL stadiums and more recently a baseball stadium. Playing at Yankee Stadium last week, Notre Dame throttled unbeaten Army. It was, without question, the most impressive performance for the team this year.

    Now, all that stands between the Irish and the College Football Playoff is this road trip, and it's a long one. Notre Dame will finally play in an opposing stadium, and it will do so against a team that would love to spoil the party.

    USC has quietly won three of the last four. Perhaps more fascinating when it comes to this game, however, is that all five losses have come by a touchdown or less. The defense has greatly improved, and it's largely kept this team in games.

    For as dominant as ND has looked of late, it's still safe to question the quality of competition. USC isn't exactly a dominant force, although this group could cause problems on the road.

    This one is worth keeping an eye on.

    Oftentimes, it isn't pretty. In fact, it can be downright ugly.

    With that acknowledged, Kentucky football can still be effective.

    This year, it wasn't nearly effective enough. The Wildcats have only won four games, although they have certainly made the most of a down year, hanging tough with Georgia and beating Ole Miss.

    The schedule certainly hasn't helped, although they have had plenty of misfires along the way. Playing at home against a rival to close out the year, however, feels like a perfect time to play spoiler.

    Louisville has won seven games thus far, which includes wins at Clemson and a hard-fought loss at Notre Dame. They also played a tight one against SMU.

    Playing an early morning game on the road to close out the year, however, feels a little slippery. Given the point spread the oddsmakers have hung, they certainly think so.

    Kentucky hasn't put it altogether, although the Wildcats have showcased the ability to put together 60-minute stretches. This feels like precisely one of those moments.

    Northwestern (+7.5) vs. Illinois

    Speaking of cold, ugly football games, enter Northwestern and Illinois. With a frigid Chicago weekend expected, expect Northwestern to push for an upset of a ranked team.

    Georgia State (-1) vs. Coastal Carolina

    I promise, I have nothing personal against Coastal Carolina. Many weeks have just felt like a solid opportunity to bet against the Chanticleers. This is another one of those opportunities, and we're taking advantage.

    Rice (+4.5) vs. USF

    This one is frankly a bit of a gut check. USF has played well in recent weeks, although the oddsmakers still decided to hang a fascinating line for a team that has lost four of its last five games. Away we go.

    San Jose State vs. Stanford (Over 55.5)

    Totals have not been kind this year, although this one stands out. Both teams have been feisty at times, and both offenses have shown the ability to produce. Both defenses also rank outside the top 75, which doesn't hurt.

    UCF (-10) vs. Utah

    A season that started with such promise will end this weekend for Utah, which has only four victories despite starting the season as the favorite to win the conference. A cross-country trip doesn't help.

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