NOPE: Netflix and Apple not doing business together

Apple’s streaming video service could generate 100M subs

We’re just a week away from the expected announcement of Apple’s streaming video service. While details are still sparse, a report earlier today listed five TV shows that have already wrapped shooting. Despite the looming unveil, however, analysts remain skeptical of the effects Apple’s video service will have on its long-term business.

Meanwhile, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings today confirmed that the company has no intentions to be a part of Apple’s upgraded TV application…

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As detailed in a roundup from Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the “best-case” scenario for Apple’s video service would still be a “likely small” number of subscribers. For instance, adding 20 million subscribers at $15 per month by 2020 would only increase earnings by 1 percent, the firm argued:

If Apple Video adds 20 million subscribers who pay $15 a month by the end of 2020 — what Goldman called a bull-case scenario — that would likely only increase consensus earnings expectations by 1 percent, according to analyst Rod Hall. An Apple News product that costs $10 a month for a subscription would add 0.4 percent to earnings.

Of course, the logical argument is that such services will strength user ties to iOS devices, but Hall argues that even that increased “iPhone stickiness” would be “unlikely to make much of an impact on Apple’s bottom line.”

“The key question for us on this is what the anchor value in such a bundle would be from the point of view of a consumer,” Hall wrote. “In the case of Amazon it is free shipping but in Apple’s case the core driver is less clear to us.”

Meanwhile, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings addressed Apple’s ambitious streaming plans at an event. Hastings said that while “Apple is a great company,” Netflix wants to be able to control its own content through its own app.

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Part of Apple’s revamped TV strategy is said to be an upgraded TV app that allows users to subscribe to third-party services like HBO, Starz, and more. Netflix, however, will not be part of this new TV app hub, as previous reports have suggested. Recode’s Peter Kafka noted Hastings’ comments:

This shouldn’t come as a major surprise, however. Netflix has long resisted Apple’s TV app on tvOS, so it was unlikely from the start that it would integrate with an upgraded version of the app either.

Apple will hold an event next week at Steve Jobs Theater where it is expected to unveil its new streaming TV service, upgraded TV app, and Apple News magazine integration.

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