If the political intrigues in the country are anything to go by, the unity between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga is distrustful. Unbeknown to many, the March 9 Handshake has nothing to do with us and unity, rather, it is informed by vested interests towards attaining and retaining political power beyond the current regime.
Let’s face it. The political truce is about the forthcoming referendum. Let me explain. From the look of things, Uhuru has no intention of retiring after serving his two terms as is stipulated in the Constitution.
On the other hand, Raila, who in 1997 vied for presidency and lost; supported Mwai Kibaki in 2002 and delivered a win before their relationship got stained; controversially lost the 2007, 2013 and 2017 elections; and whose political history is checkered, is keen on prolonging his political lifeline.
Although history has shown no mercy to Raila, he has learnt valuable lessons, and even though he has near-zero chance of becoming the fifth tenant of the House on the Hill, he seems to have changed tact.
Could this explain why the Opposition is agitating for parliamentary system of government?
In 2012, Uhuru and his deputy William Ruto entered a pact that would see the former support the latter in the 2022 presidential elections. Today, I doubt the President is keen on keeping his word and from the look of things, Ruto is well aware of the changed status quo and is, therefore, more determined than ever to remain undeterred in his bid to become the fifth President of Kenya.
The details behind the Handshake remain scanty although Nasa co-principal Kalonzo Musyoka could have let us in on some aspects of the agreement. In an interview with a local TV station, Kalonzo declared he would support Uhuru for Prime Minister in 2022 and would be willing to be his deputy.
Could Kalonzo have been insinuating an Uhuru-Raila pact is in the offing, where the former is to become the executive Prime Minister and the latter a ceremonial President, if the Constitution is amended?
Judging from history, Raila is not to be trusted and Uhuru should be jittery about his ‘new-found unity’ with him. Knowing Raila, he will not play second fiddle to anyone and that is why in 2001, when Kanu welcomed him, he caused political ripples before pulling a similar stunt during his coalition government with Kibaki.
But I am also convinced that Uhuru is aware of Raila’s intrigues. If I’m right, then the President is only using Raila to ‘manage’ his overly ambitious deputy and to enable him deliver on the Big Four agenda and secure his legacy.
If the referendum is inevitable, then Ruto has the precarious option of taking on the Uhuru-Raila camp. To win, he will have to convince the masses that the referendum is a dynasties’ scheme to retain political power and control the economy.
In this intricate political chess game, Uhuru, in my opinion, is treading on dangerous ground. The more he pushes his deputy away, the more Raila edges closer to checkmate him