A top secret document prepared just before the International Criminal Court (ICC) pre-trials began , formed the heart of Uhuru’s campaign strategy for the March 2013 General Election.
The document titled “State House 2012” provides interesting insights into how the Uhuru think tank viewed other candidates in the race, how they strongly believed that ethnic blocs would carry the day, and how they toyed with the idea of dangling carrots to the smaller communities to get them to back Uhuru.
It was prepared by what is described by impeccable sources as Uhuru’s “election war council,” a nerve centre made up of at least eight people. The team comprised politicians, businessmen, political strategists and lawyers and formed the heart of Uhuru’s presidential campaign.
It was believed the presidency would be won by a candidate from one of the big five communities — the Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya or Akamba.
According to a leaked dossier, Uhuru Kenyatta’s political strategists believed that they could not work with William Ruto in their quest for the presidency because he would not agree to play second fiddle.
The document further argued that Ruto, now Deputy President, would probably lose in a run-off with Uhuru. The document projected that in an election, Ruto would be placed ahead of Raila — whom they believed would finish third in the first round.
The campaign strategists now believed that in that scenario,Ruto would be compelled to come to the negotiating table and agree to be Uhuru’s running mate in the play-off.
The strategy included a comprehensive hypothetical election poll forecast done at least three months to the the elections, which compared Uhuru’s and Raila’s fortunes in every county.
The strategists believed that Raila would dominate the campaign trail with the issue of devolution, and hence developed a counter strategy.
They also believed that Raila would use the ICC trials to discredit Uhuru, execute a populist agenda and rekindle the majimbo debate to win the elections.
The document states: “Raila Odinga: Revamp ODM and go directly to the people doing populist things, rekindle majimbo through the county debate.
The think tank argued that Mr Eugene Wamalwa offered the most obvious choice for Deputy President, describing him as “non-threatening and inexperienced”.
According to the document, Uhuru would have offered former Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Mohamed the post of National Assembly Speaker, a position currently occupied by Mr Justin Muturi.
Mr Simeon Nyachae would have ended up as Senate Speaker if he had agreed to gun for it.