Jose Mourinho said last Friday that he was looking at the festive period as Manchester United’s opportunity to catapult themselves back into the reckoning for the top four.
The only problem: it is probably already too late. If it wasn’t already a tall order before the weekend, the dire 0-0 draw at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday means that Mourinho must inspire his men to do something that has never been achieved in the last two decades: make up a seven-point deficit after a third of the season (13 games) to finish in the top four.
Given many of Mourinho’s players are barely giving him the bare minimum, it seems unlikely that they will go to the effort of setting new benchmarks for him.
Here are the worrying stats for Mourinho and United:
– Of all the top four finishers since the Premier League began, Arsenal in 2012/13 had the biggest deficit to make up. Arsene Wenger’s men used the last two-thirds of the campaign to claw back a five-point gap and finish fourth, one point clear of Tottenham.
– Only on five other occasions – three of them featuring Liverpool – have top four finishers recovered anything more than a one-point deficit by this stage of the season.
– And during the last 10 years, in five seasons the teams in the top four after 13 games have been the same sides that finish in the Champions League places. Only once in the last decade (last season) has the make-up of the final top four changed by more than a single side from that of the quartet at the summit after 13 games.
Had United beaten Palace on Saturday, the gap from fourth place Chelsea would have been five points – an obstacle that has been overcome before, albeit just once.
But now it seems that if Mourinho and United want to retain their Champions League place next year, they are going to have to win it this season. Or, get themselves knocked out at the group stage and win the Europa League again. Let’s not pretend it hasn’t crossed Jose’s mind…